Promising to win “by hook or by crook" may sound like a Donald Trump quote but not quite. Find out which Latin American autocrat proved this week he meant it - and what it means for geolegal risk.
Very interesting piece Sean, though I think that there's another interesting geo-legal angle that may be worth talking about further the impact of Venezuela's increasing debt distress in the years leading up to the maximum pressure sanctions and the persistence of the interests of debt holders and those holding other arrears even today. For many years following Venezuela's decisions to prioritize debt repayments (including those held by local military) over domestic transfers or investment in domestic economy, led to more and more repression. And of course the debt distress was yet another aspect that got frozen as tougher sanctions came into place. The debt and arrears arguably made China and Russia more attractive as partners, and create a web that needs to be addressed in case of any (perhaps overly optimistic) normalization. Just highlights the complex layers of geoeconomics and legal risks. .
Absolutely Rachel and I’m really glad you highlighted this. I had been going back and forth with my colleague Karthik on this and we’re both very much aligned with what you outlined below, just didn’t get it fully into the piece. It’s a complicated and messy story for sure and the county’s debt plays a big role.
Very interesting piece Sean, though I think that there's another interesting geo-legal angle that may be worth talking about further the impact of Venezuela's increasing debt distress in the years leading up to the maximum pressure sanctions and the persistence of the interests of debt holders and those holding other arrears even today. For many years following Venezuela's decisions to prioritize debt repayments (including those held by local military) over domestic transfers or investment in domestic economy, led to more and more repression. And of course the debt distress was yet another aspect that got frozen as tougher sanctions came into place. The debt and arrears arguably made China and Russia more attractive as partners, and create a web that needs to be addressed in case of any (perhaps overly optimistic) normalization. Just highlights the complex layers of geoeconomics and legal risks. .
Absolutely Rachel and I’m really glad you highlighted this. I had been going back and forth with my colleague Karthik on this and we’re both very much aligned with what you outlined below, just didn’t get it fully into the piece. It’s a complicated and messy story for sure and the county’s debt plays a big role.